Confirmation Bias and Collective Folly

For all of you seeking an image, symbol, or story to help you understand the mysteries of confirmation bias, I offer this YouTube presentation of a woman advocating for deer crossing signs to be moved to places safer for deer to cross. (sent to me by Steve Maybury, further confirming my sense of his humor)
 

 

"Underneath the many variations of collective folly lie at least two fundamental patterns that alert us to the potential of folly’s emergence. The first pattern is a movement toward separation and fragmentation. In this pattern, group members resist ideas, other group members, or other groups that are deemed “not me” or “not us.”


Sometimes this pull is subtle. Group members ignore divergent perspectives or data, welcoming only the data and perspectives that confirm what they know, or think they know. The cognitive sciences describe this behavior as confirmation bias—a tendency to search for and interpret information in ways that confirm our existing preconceptions.
"
~ Edited passage from The Power of Collective Wisdom: And the Trap of Collective Folly

If you missed it the first time …

Becoming Conscious of Capitalism:
The Death and Rebirth of Prosperity’s Dream

a serial narrative by Alan Briskin
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Postmark, Oakland, CA, August 11, 2012
Today the Republican nominee for President Mitt Romney chose the Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to be his vice presidential nominee. The news was filled with many different perspectives about this selection, one of which was the unusual philosophical connection Ryan has with the author Ayn Rand.

Below is an excerpt about Ayn Rand from my new serial narrative, Becoming Conscious of Capitalism, and her unusual link with Paul Ryan.

I wrote the serial over the past few months with an eye to collective folly but also as a serious attempt to discover the links between capitalism and partisan politics. Along with my commentary, I include some of my HDR (high dynamic range) photography as well as FLASH POINTS ripped from today’s headlines and those of earlier historic perspectives.

I hope you will find the serial stimulating, an irreverent romp through history as we polka our way to the Presidential elections.  Sometimes trying to keep sane means embracing insanity as an important herald of what to pay attention to. Read on for a “sneak preview” excerpt from Chapter Six of the series…
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Notes from the Field

Call it a clan, call it a network, call it a tribe, call it a family:  Whatever you call it, whoever you are, you need one.  ~ Jane Howard

CERI-Cooking

One of the stories featured in The Power of Collective Wisdom is about the Center for Empowering Refugees and Immigrants (CERI) in Oakland, California.  Co-founded by Mona Afary, the center has been a tribe and network for Cambodian refugees and their families, many of whom escaped from the brutal regime of Pol Pot and the killing fields.

Mona’s initial inspiration for the center came from her observing that in the waiting room of her counseling office, a group of Cambodian clients and their families sat together talking and laughing, knitting together and trading stories.  The possibility for healing was in front of her, in the interconnected web of life and love.

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Chapter One

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A serial journal of cogent reflections and irreverent insights on the social effects of capitalism and the roots of partisan politics. Pairing prose with HDR photography and “flash points” drawn from current and historical perspectives, the author seeks to recover lost wisdom and courageous action beyond the shouting and noise of today’s headlines. 

Chapter One:
Eight-Leaved Clovers of the World, Unite
London, 1847

510n a bleak November day, two men trudged along Great Windmill Street in London. They breathed in air yellow from industrial waste and pondered the extremes of wealth and poverty that had sprung up like gods and demons across the city landscape. Between their poor vision and the London fog, they could barely see a foot ahead of themselves, but in their minds’ eye, they saw a future of increasing economic division. Somewhere not too distant in time, they believed, anger would well up among the workers, culminating in revolutionary action.

One of them wanted to show the world with a simple parable, like an ancient prophet, why society’s self-destruction was inevitable. The other, the son of a Jewish family that adopted Christianity, was someone born into affluence and respectability, but called to forsake his relations, though not so much that he wasn’t willing to borrow money from them. So it was that these two compatriots, Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, made their way to the Red Lion Pub.

 

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HDR (High Dynamic Range) Photography by Alan Briskin: multiple shots at different exposures are combined into one image in order to show “more of what’s there”.

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FLASH POINT
New York City, 1890

 

“These are the economic conditions that enable my manufacturing friend to boast that New York can “beat the world” on cheap clothing. In support of his claim he told me that a single Bowery firm last year sold fifteen thousand suits at $1.95 that averaged in cost $1.12 ½.” 

~ From How the Other Half Lives, written by Jacob Riis

 

 

 

 


 

 

It was as if the two of them were destined to emerge victorious among a ragtag group of immigrants, intellectuals, utopians, anarchists, and protesters who had come together to chart a new social contract. Marx, full of himself, was never more alive than in a good intellectual battle, and Engels had the cheerfulness, adaptability, and good nature of a born organizer. “This time we will have our way,” he wrote to Marx before they arrived in London. And have their way, they did. The German Workers’ Educational Union, a convenient public relations front for the Communist League, voted to adopt their draft of the Communist Manifesto, which Marx had read portions of out loud to the group. However, what the group heard was in some doubt, given Marx’s accent and lisp. One witness recalled that when Marx said “workers,” some thought he said “eight-leaved clovers,” which must have been somewhat confusing.

 

Marx and Engels were early practitioners of a particularly speculative and ambiguous field of social science initially described as “political economy” and later shortened to “economics,” denoting a more neutral and quantitative perspective regarding society’s production and distribution of goods and services. Originally derived from an ancient Greek word, the root meaning of economics had to do with the management or administration of a household. But the household was now nations and transnational corporations. 

 

Marx and Engels were visionaries, foreseeing a new economic institution that was still emerging, one that would harness the energies of human imagination in no less dramatic a fashion than Prometheus’s giving fire to humanity. Engels, in particular, was awed by what was occurring around them. He was not alone marveling at the extraordinary gifts of commerce, high culture, diversity, social mobility, new services, and hope that this new economic institution engendered. Capitalism was a dream for many of an ever-lasting prosperity.  Marx and Engels sought to waken them to its true consequences.

 

In mid-19th-century London, the physical location where Marx and Engels delivered the Manifesto, their parable on social disintegration, there was no greater center of commerce in the world. It was a marketplace without comparison, a hive of activity where “at a low cost and with the least trouble, conveniences, comforts, and amenities beyond the compass of the richest and most powerful monarchs” could be found. Incomes were, on average, 40% higher there than in other English cities, and the results were palpable, with a level of escalating consumer demand driving entrepreneurial forces toward novelty, innovation, new technologies, and entire new industries.

 

These new economic arrangements were a thunderbolt challenging hundreds if not thousands of years of human history. Commerce of this proportion was a social retort to common beliefs about the inescapability of material deprivation for the masses.  Capitalism was to be a buffering institution between the transcendent and random forces of God and nature on the one hand and control over one’s own personal destiny on the other. Trade of this form and intensity was a force for progress, freedom, and increasing liberty. What could go wrong?

 

The question hovers over us today as it did for Marx and Engels. They were witnesses to an emerging economic institution that still had no agreed-upon name. In the Communist Manifesto, they were more prone to talk about a bourgeoisie class than a capitalist class, but over the next 20 years, Marx would settle on words and terms like capitalist and capitalist mode of production, using them thousands of times in his economic discourses. But just as “eight-leaved clovers” had been mistaken for “workers,” audiences would hear different things, make wildly different judgments about their meaning and effects, and in the end polarize the choices between capitalism and communism, missing the collective context and dreams that had brought these words to consciousness in the first place.

Main Sources
The Worldly Philosophers, by Robert L. Heilbroner
The Communist Manifesto, by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels
Grand Pursuit, by Sylvia Nasar

Next Week: The Calculus of Capitalism
What Marx provided was a theoretical blueprint for cracks that lay in the foundation of a new economic edifice called capitalism. And he did it in the way many intuitive but slightly skewed geniuses operate: by masking it in endless obsessive formulations that make one cry uncle and then demanding that no one deviate from its precepts. Clever…

 

Reimagining, Renewing, Reinventing Leadership – June 10th

Alan Briskin will be a keynote speaker on June 10th at Pacifica Graduate Institute’s Public Conference on Transformational Leadership.
 
Pacifica Graduate Institute Presents:
Reimagining, Renewing, Reinventing Leadership – A Public Conference
June 8-10, 2012

with keynotes by Mathew Fox, Betty Sue Flowers, Carol Pearson, and Alan Briskin

Join us and learn how to tap into your deeper wisdom and authentic ways of being and relating; cultivate your capacity for curiosity and imagination; and become aware of the generative narratives, structures, and strategies that can respond to the call of the future.